DUBLIN–(BUSINESS WIRE)–The “New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report – 2022-2027” report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offering.
The publisher forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2022-27 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2005, sliding down every year since then.
The publisher forecasts that 5G mobile subscribers will represent nearly 64% of all subscriptions by 2027, 4G will represent about 34% of all connections while 2G and 3G will account for the remainder, if not switched off earlier.
Mobile subscribers numbers and revenue are growing strongly and the back of population growth and the market shift to postpaid.
The publisher expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2027 after a marked slow down in 2019 and 2020 due to legacy voice revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth and COVID travel restrictions.
The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2015 and 2019, its now decreasing and is expected to remain at the same level through to 2027. The publisher estimates that the ratio will settle back by 2023 peaking in 2019. Chorus is still investing heavily in fibre infrastructure until 2022 while Spark and Vodafone have more conservative investment profiles.
Mobile Subscribers and Revenue
Over the last five years, the market shifted to postpaid as subscribers move to Pay Monthly offerings (SIM-only plans) with increased data allowances. Overall, the number of prepaid subscribers continued to decrease slightly. Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.
According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. New Zealand has the highest pricing per GB and Kiwis downloaded the least amount of data over their mobile phones.
Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless
The Ultra-Fast Broadband Initiative is a New Zealand Government program of building fibre-to-the-home networks covering 87% of the population by the end of 2022, FTTP will be deployed to 1.8 million households and businesses in 412 cities and towns. It is a public-private partnership of the government with four companies with a total government investment of NZ$1.7 billion.
The broadband market is now experiencing low growth mostly driven by new premises construction in greenfield developments or urban redevelopments. The UFB government project reached over 1.7m premises and connected 63% of them or 1.1m premises.
Household growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises, previously not able to connect now served by UFB2, will drive up the fixed-broadband subscribers.
Thematics–Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.
In 2019, Morrisson & Co (Infratil) and Brookfield, both infrastructure funds, bought Vodafone NZ for NZ$3.4 billion (EV/EBITDA of .c7). Globally, many infrastructure funds are investing in mobile towers, FTTH, data centres, submarine cables while that trend is likely to continue over time with more proactive transactions.
In 2022, 2Degrees and Orcon (Vocus NZ) announced their merger to form the thrid largest telecommunications provider.
All three operators are exploring mobile towers monetisation within the next 12 to 18 months taking the opportunity to realise cash from existing assets and focus on the core business of attracting and maintaining subscribers as well as potentially reducing overheads and depreciation charges. For infrastructure investors, the NZ towers would be a new investment opportunity based on long-term income streams and value creation.
Vodafone new owners (Infratil and Brookfield) which are both infrastructure funds are likely to explore a separation of its infrastructure and retail business in the mid-term once its reset of strategy is starting to pay off.
In 2022, both Spark and Vodafone outlined plans to divest their repsective passive telecommunications tower infrastructure assets following global trends.
The publisher predicts the next wave of transactions is likely to continue being about “scale” among small ISPs and largely about infrastructure for Spark, Vodafone and 2degrees.
The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.
The report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the New Zealand telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends and also features the following:
- Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
- Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
- Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
- Spectrum Holdings
- IoT Market Overview
- Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
- Digital Infrastructure (Fibre, Telecom Towers, Data Centres, Submarine Cables)
- National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
- Telecom Tower Market Analysis and Forecast
- Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
- Telco M&A Transaction Database
Key Topics Covered:
1 Key Statistics
1.1 New Zealand’s Population
1.2 New Zealand’s Economy
1.3 New Zealand’s GDP
2 COVID-19 Impact
3 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2015-2027
3.1 Market Overview
3.2 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2015-2021
3.3 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2020-2027
3.4 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2015-2027
3.4.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2015-2021
3.4.2 Capex to Revenue Benchmark
3.4.3 Capex to GDP Benchmark
3.4.4 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2020-2027
4 Telecommunications Operators Profile
4.1 Spark New Zealand Profile
4.1.1 Spark Revenue EBITDA and Capex Mix
4.2 Vodafone New Zealand Profile
4.2.1 Vodafone New Zealand Revenue EBITDA and Capex Mix
4.3.1 2degrees Revenue EBITDA and Capex Mix
4.4 Chorus Profile
4.4.1 Chorus Revenue, EBITDA & Capex Mix
4.5 Other Players Profile
4.5.1 Vocus New Zealand
4.5.2 Trustpower (now Mercury)
5 Mobile Market
5.1 NEW Zealand Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2015-2027
5.1.1 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2015-2021
5.1.2 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2015-2021
5.1.3 New Zealand Smartphone Share, 2021
5.1.4 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
5.1.5 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2020-2027
5.2 New Zealand Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2015-2027
5.2.1 Historical Mobile Revenue, 2015-2021
5.2.1 New Zealand Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2015-2021
5.2.2 Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2015-2021
5.2.3 New Zealand Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2020-2027
5.3 Mobile Coverage
5.4 Spectrum Holdings
5.4.1 Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs
5.4.2 Upcoming 5G Auctions in 2022
5.4.3 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
5.4.1 Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
5.5 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
5.6 Mobile Speed Tests
5.7 Internet of Things (IoT)
6 Broadband Market
6.1 New Zealand Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2015-2021
6.2 New Zealand Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
7 Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1 Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.1.1 The Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB)
7.1.2 Submarine Cables
8 New Zealand Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
8.1 Small Tightly Held Tower Market
8.1.1 New Zealand Telecom Towers Background
8.2 New Zealand Telecom Towers Market Forecast
8.2.1 New Zealand Telecom Towers Forecast, 2020-2027
8.2.2 Regulatory Considerations
8.3 Spark TowerCo
8.3.1 Spark TowerCo Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.4 Vodafone TowerCo
8.4.1 Vodafone TowerCo Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.5 Tower Density Benchmark
8.6 Telco Infrastructure Comparative
9 Thematics / Opportunities
9.1 Consolidation Opportunities
9.2 Going for Scope
9.3 New Telecoms Operating Model
9.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
9.4 5G Developments
9.4.1 5G Overview
9.4.2 5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
9.4.3 5G OpenRAN
9.4.4 Beyond 5G and Towards 6G
10 Telco Transaction Database
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/3kml6r
Laura Wood, Senior Press Manager
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